Democrats won Congress, but a White House official said June's vote to end the Iran war had "no significance"

What voters changed on November 3rd

The US Congress writes federal law and approves the government's spending. It has two chambers: the House of Representatives, with 435 seats, and the Senate, with 100. Republicans held both until this election. Democrats won both on November 3rd, in a sharp defeat for President Donald Trump, a Republican.

The count is not finished. By 3:19 a.m. Eastern on November 4th, NBC News had called 231 House seats for Democrats and 144 for Republicans. Democrats had flipped 29 seats, meaning they took them from Republicans, as Figure 1 shows. NBC News projects they will end with about 255, and says that estimate could move by a few seats.

In the Senate, NBC News showed 54 Democratic seats and 43 Republican seats, with seven seats flipped and three races uncalled (Figure 2). Before the vote, Republicans led the Senate 53-47. That 47 included two independents who vote with the Democrats.

Who decides now

Three people matter most, and they are pictured below. Trump stays president through January 20th, 2029, and he still commands the military. Hakeem Jeffries leads the House Democrats and Chuck Schumer leads the Senate Democrats. They take control when the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd. Until then, Republicans still run both chambers.

Donald Trump

US president

Keeps the veto and control of the war with Iran.

Hakeem Jeffries

House Democratic leader

Says Democrats will keep pushing votes to end the Iran war.

Chuck Schumer

Senate Democratic leader

Leads the chamber that confirms judges and Cabinet nominees.

Why winning a vote is not enough

A president can veto a bill, and Congress can overturn that veto only with two-thirds of each chamber. Democrats will not have that on their own. Trump has said what he plans to do. "I'll become Mr. Veto," he said before the election, adding that he expected deals "at some point."

Two cases this year show that a vote can pass and change little. In June the Senate adopted a resolution, a formal statement by Congress, calling for an end to the Iran war. The vote was 50-48, and the House had already passed it. A White House official said it had "no significance." DW, the German broadcaster, reports that the administration has ignored it.

The second case is a law on Russia. A bill adding penalties on Russia, named for Senator Lindsey Graham, passed the Senate 86-11 and the House 262-159. On October 16th, weeks after it became law, Trump issued a broad waiver, an order that sets a law's demands aside.

Where Democrats do have power

Congress controls the money. A bill that funds the government or the military is hard to veto, because a veto stops the money too. Lawmakers could attach limits to those bills and, in the words of Daniel Hamilton of the Brookings Institution, a Washington research group, "dare Trump to veto it."

The first chance comes early. The government is running on a short-term funding law that expires on December 11th, before Democrats take over. Democrats could demand a clause in the next bill barring money for the Iran war. That carries the risk of a government shutdown, and their leaders have not said they would take that risk.

Democrats also gain the power to investigate. Robert Garcia, expected to chair the House Oversight Committee, which investigates the government, says his panel will look at Trump's cryptocurrency ventures. Trump's judges and Cabinet nominees will also need Senate votes that Republicans alone can no longer supply.

Iran

The US and Iran have been at war since February 28th. A ceasefire took hold on April 7th, but it has not ended the conflict. Energy News, a trade site relaying The Wall Street Journal, reports that US forces struck the Iranian island of Qeshm this week. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, stood at about $105 a barrel on Tuesday, against about $70 before the war.

A resolution to end the war failed in the Senate 49-50 on September 24th, and on the new numbers a majority looks within reach. But a veto would still stop it. Next, watch whether Democrats tie war limits to funding, and whether Trump signs.

Israel

On Election Day, Trump told Fox News that US aid to Israel would be "cut off at the end of the year," under a deal he said he made with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He did not say which funds he meant or how they would end. The US gives Israel $3.8 billion of military aid a year under a 10-year agreement that runs to 2028. CNN notes that appropriating the money is the job of Congress, and former US officials questioned whether the cut would happen.

Support in Congress for limits was already growing. In April, 40 senators voted to block a sale of bulldozers to Israel, and nearly half of House Democrats voted this summer to cut off aid. Israel's own politics are unsettled too: its October 27th election left neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition with the 61 seats needed to govern.

Ukraine

Ukraine may see less change than the result suggests. The Kyiv Independent, a Ukrainian news site, reports that Ukraine is "far from the top" of the Democrats' plan for their first 100 days. Reuters, the news agency, reported in October that new aid could pass with two-thirds majorities, but the Kyiv Independent reports that Democrats are unlikely to reach that number.

Talks between Russia and Ukraine open in Abu Dhabi on November 10th. The funding route is open here too: lawmakers could put Ukraine measures into the annual defense bill.

The other view

Some analysts expect the election to work without any law. Dania Arayssi of the New Lines Institute, a Washington research group, says the result "will definitely push the Trump administration to push for an exit strategy" from the Iran war. She also says Iran "will not be under pressure to offer any additional compromise," which could make a deal harder. Our own view is that votes will come quickly and binding limits, if any, will come later through funding bills.

The dates to watch

Republicans still run Congress on the first two of these dates. Our fuller analysis has more on each, with forecasts on the funding fights.