Sources: World Trade Organization, October 8th, 20261; DHL Group and NYU Stern, October 7th, 20262
The World Trade Organization (WTO), the Geneva-based body that deals with global trade rules and publishes trade forecasts, now expects world goods trade volume to grow 3.9% in 2026, up from 1.9% in March.1 DHL Group, the German logistics company, reached a similar verdict in its Globalization Tracker, which New York University's Stern School of Business writes for DHL. The tracker was called the Global Connectedness Tracker until this edition. All four forecast sources it uses now call for faster trade growth through 2029 than they did before the 2025 US tariff increases or the 2026 Iran war.2
AI hardware explains much of the gap. The WTO says AI-enabling goods, such as semiconductors and servers, made up 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, and trade in them rose 67% from a year earlier.1 Reuters reported that the WTO calls this growth highly concentrated geographically, and the WTO lists a slowdown in AI investment among the risks to its forecast.3
Companies outside the AI supply chain get the weaker half of the same forecast. The WTO cut its 2026 services trade forecast to 3.3% from 4.8% and expects European merchandise exports to fall 0.1%.1 The International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose World Economic Outlook surveys world economic prospects, says the gap between economies riding the technology upturn and those facing higher import bills is widening.4 Ship attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, the strait that Persian Gulf crude tankers must pass, doubled in October from September.5
All four of DHL's forecast sources have moved up since mid-2025.
The US announced its Liberation Day tariffs in April 2025. Trade forecasts were cut dramatically, and some sources predicted that global trade volumes would begin shrinking.2
DHL compares today's outlook with forecasts compiled in January 2025, before the tariff increases, and January 2026, before the Iran war. All four of its forecast sources now call for faster growth through 2029 than they did at either date.2 The tracker puts annualized growth in global trade volumes at 3.4% from 2026 to 2029, against 2.7% over 2016 to 2025.2 Bloomberg reported that DHL's forecast for 2026 is 4.6%, up from 3.6% in January, and its 2027 forecast is 3.6%, up from 2.7%.6
Percent a year. Each panel has its own scale.
Sources: World Trade Organization, October 8th, 20261; Bloomberg, October 7th, 20266
The WTO figures are from its March and October 2026 outlooks. The DHL figures are as reported by Bloomberg.
The WTO moved the same way. Its March baseline had merchandise trade volume growing 1.9% in 2026. On October 8th it raised that to 3.9% and put 2027 at 4.1%.1 DHL adds that goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half year since 2011, apart from the rebound after Covid.2 WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala described the new numbers this way on October 8th.
WTOLeads the Geneva body that raised its 2026 goods trade forecast on October 8th, 2026. She says the numbers show resilience but warns that not everyone can access opportunities like AI.1
DHL and NYU SternCo-authors the DHL Globalization Tracker with Caroline R. Bastian. He says the outlook is now stronger than before either the tariffs or the Iran war.7
Portraits after photographs. Steven A. Altman: photo published by stern.nyu.edu.
The numbers reflect trade resilience in action.
The WTO ties its upgrade to supply chains that adapted to energy and fertilizer disruption and to strong investment in AI infrastructure.1 It says global AI infrastructure spending is projected to rise by at least 30% in 2026, and market projections have AI capital expenditure rising a further 10-20% in 2027.1
DHL cites WTO and OECD research that put AI-enabling goods at 42% of goods trade growth in 2025 and about 76% in the first quarter of 2026.2 The WTO's own first-half figure is 47%.1 The studies cover different periods, so the numbers do not line up neatly.
The spending behind this is large. Bloomberg counted more than $3 trillion in commitments from Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle on leases, buildings, energy and equipment. Part of it is near-term and part of it is decades away.8
Two Asian economies show the effect. In the first five months of 2026, among the 50 largest trading nations, Malaysia's trade value rose 51% and Taiwan's 44% compared with a year earlier. DHL says both benefited from electronics demand boosted by AI investment.2 It also cites one study estimating that US imports would have fallen 10% in 2025 without the AI investment boom.2
Percent change against the same months of 2025. Malaysia and Taiwan are among the 50 largest trading nations.
Source: DHL Group and NYU Stern, October 7th, 20262
Economies hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz saw falls, including Saudi Arabia at 37% down.
DHL says US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, yet the global effect was limited. The US took 13% of world imports in 2025, and roughly half of its imports were exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026.2 Most countries did not retaliate, and many sought new trade agreements.2 Even so, 72% of goods trade is still on most-favored-nation terms, down from 80% in 2022.2
The damage sits in particular lanes. US imports from China fell 29% in 2025, and China's share of US imports dropped to 9.3% from more than 20% before 2018.3 In the first five months of 2026, exports from Ireland to the US fell 67% and exports from Switzerland to the US fell 56%. DHL says US tariffs and related uncertainty shaped both, and gold trade swings mattered in the Swiss case.2
The war worked the same way. In the first half of 2026, Middle East crude oil exports fell about 24% and liquefied natural gas exports fell 47%. Other suppliers filled in, so global crude exports fell only about 6% and gas exports 1%.1 Global container throughput still rose 3.9% in the year through July.1 Trade value fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates.7
The war is not over. CNBC reported on October 30th that at least 30 vessels, mostly oil tankers, were hit in October through the 27th, citing International Maritime Organization data. September had 15 confirmed incidents. Brent crude traded above $117 a barrel that day.5 Crude exports through Hormuz still averaged nearly 11.1 million barrels a day in October, about 2% below September.5
Services show it first. The WTO cut its 2026 services trade forecast to 3.3% from 4.8%, and Reuters reported transport and travel forecasts of 0.9% and 0.2%.1,3 Both depend heavily on the Middle East.
Percent change in volume, by region.
Source: World Trade Organization, October 8th, 20261
The Middle East is forecast to fall 15.4% and is not drawn.
On imports, the WTO expects North America to grow 1.4% and Europe 0.5%, against 9.5% for Asia.1 The EIU's August 12th note says the AI boom has not lifted exports from non-tech sectors equally. The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and says the divide between economies in the technology upcycle or with favorable terms of trade and those facing higher import bills is widening.4
The UK shows the second group. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), its independent fiscal forecaster, notes that as a net energy importer the UK takes a negative terms-of-trade hit from higher energy prices. It now expects consumer price inflation of 3½ per cent in 2027, against 2 per cent expected in March.10
However, the asymmetric nature of this AI boom has not equally boosted exports from non-tech sectors.
Price is the first caution. In the first half of 2026 world merchandise trade volume grew 3.5% year on year, while its dollar value grew 15%. The WTO links the gap to higher energy prices and strong demand for AI-enabling goods.3 Reuters reports the 47% share in value terms, so part of the AI effect is buyers paying more.3
Concentration is the second. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a forecasting unit of The Economist Group, says its trade forecast is anchored mainly on the development of AI and that this leaves Asian and global trade dependent on a single narrow driver of demand.11 DHL makes the same point: because growth is concentrated in AI goods, a slowdown there could cut trade growth substantially.2
DHL's authors challenge the angle of this piece. They say the overall effect of tariffs and conflict has been limited, and that forecasts also rose because most countries did not retaliate and many found other markets.2 On that reading AI does not conceal damage across the board. It offsets the damage in aggregate while the losses sit with Strait-dependent economies and a few tariff-hit lanes.
The published data cannot split the upgrade among AI demand, restraint on retaliation and rerouting. We treat AI as the largest identified contributor, and we do not put a share on it.
Confidence is medium. The mechanism is documented: the WTO and DHL both tie the upgrade to AI goods, and the EIU anchors its own forecast on AI.1,2,11 The horizon is less certain. The WTO forecast ends in 2027 and DHL's runs to 2029, and the WTO's 2027 view assumes AI capital expenditure keeps rising.1
What would change the call:
| Reader | Main exposure | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Private equity and venture capital firms | Portfolio companies that sell into Europe or North America, where import growth is subdued1 | Ask each company how much of its revenue depends on AI hardware demand and how much on weak consumer markets. |
| Family offices | Equity positions that look safe because of strong aggregate trade data | Check how much of the listed holdings' trade exposure rests on one product group.11 |
| Corporates outside AI hardware | Energy and freight costs, and tariff-hit lanes2,5 | Model costs on the October conditions at Hormuz, not on the aggregate forecast. |
| Law firms | Supply contracts with tariff and rerouting clauses | Review which clauses were written before the 2025 tariffs and the 2026 war. |