Federal political contributions this cycle by the largest donor groups, as counted by CNBC from Federal Election Commission filings available in late September. Musk's later gifts are not included1.
Source: CNBC, October 8, 20261
His representatives say he gave a further $276 million from July to September2.
The widely reported total for Elon Musk's midterm giving joins two different kinds of figure. About $90.6 million of it is in Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, by CNBC's count1, and our own pull of the FEC's itemised receipts under his name gives a similar total3. The other $276 million, given from July to September, was supplied by his representatives to The New York Times and confirmed by spokespeople for his super PAC, America PAC2,4. Committees that file quarterly report those months by 15 October5. Gifts through groups that do not disclose their donors are in neither figure2.
The new money is aimed mainly at the Senate. The largest single gift, $158 million, went to Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with the Senate Republican leader2. That one gift is about three-fifths of everything the fund reported raising from January 2025 to June 2026, by our calculation from its filings6. America PAC received $76 million and is concentrating on Texas, where the Senate race has drawn more outside spending than any other contest2,7,8.
The policy exposure runs through federal contracts, licences and regulators, and much of it does not depend on which party wins. Federal agencies paid about 20% of SpaceX's revenue last year9. Tesla faces an open federal safety investigation covering 3.2 million vehicles10, and X, now part of SpaceX, is under an EU compliance plan11,12. A change of majority in either chamber of Congress would add subpoena power over companies seen as close to the administration13.
The reported cycle total was first published by The New York Times on 12 October, from figures Musk's representatives gave the paper2,7. Reuters and CNBC then obtained confirmation from America PAC spokespeople2,4. The total is the sum of two parts. The first is what FEC filings already show: roughly $90.6 million from 1 January 2025 to the latest reports, in CNBC's count1. The second is $276 million given from July to the end of September, itemised by recipient but not yet filed2,7.
The filed part is smaller than it looks as midterm money. America PAC's spokesman told Reuters that roughly $90 million spent this cycle paid for work on the 2024 election or other causes2. Those causes include the April 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race and a programme paying $1 million to registered voters who signed a petition2. FEC records show the largest single item under Musk's name as an in-kind contribution of $27.1 million to America PAC on 30 June 2025, described as petition incentives3. America PAC's own totals show $50.3 million from individuals over the cycle to June, so Musk has funded almost all of it, by comparison with his filed gifts15,7.
| Recipient, as filed with the FEC | Amount | When | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| America PAC, Musk's own super PAC | $50.3 million | January 2025 to June 2026 | 7 |
| Senate Leadership Fund | $10 million | $5 million each in June and December 2025 | 7,3 |
| Congressional Leadership Fund | $10 million | $5 million each in June and December 2025 | 7,3 |
| Fight for Kentucky | $10 million | 14 January 2026 | 3 |
| MAGA Inc. | $5 million | June 2025 | 7,3 |
| V-PAC: Victors, Not Victims | $5 million | 8 May 2026 | 3 |
Reported, not yet filed. The $276 million for July to September will appear in the recipients' October quarterly reports, due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on 15 October5. The January gift that Forbes describes as support for former Kentucky Senate candidate Nate Morris appears in FEC records as $10 million to Fight for Kentucky on 14 January7,3. Morris later left the primary to become ambassador to Colombia7. Neither figure covers gifts to groups that do not disclose donors, which the Times described only as seven-figure sums7.
By recipient, $ million, as itemised by his representatives and confirmed by America PAC
Source: Reuters, October 12, 20262
Not yet in FEC filings. The two associations work on state races2.
The Senate gift is the centre of the money. Senate Leadership Fund is aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune2. Its filings show $253.7 million raised from January 2025 to June 20266, so the $158 million gift alone equals about three-fifths of that, by our calculation. CNBC describes it as among the largest known political donations by an individual in US history4. The fund is already the largest outside spender of the cycle, at nearly $174 million by 5 October8.
Texas is the clearest single target. America PAC has directed most of its spending to the Texas Senate race, per the Times as reported by Forbes7. Musk also gave $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC, which backs the Republican nominee, Attorney General Ken Paxton2. That contest has drawn nearly $287 million in outside spending, more than any other8. Outside groups have spent $146.5 million for or against Paxton and about $144.6 million for or against the Democrat, James Talarico14. On the other side, Reid Hoffman has given $11.5 million to Lone Star Rising, the super PAC backing Talarico, whose campaign raised $68.6 million through June1. Beyond Texas, America PAC says it is working in seven battleground states and nearly three dozen House races2.
DonorGave about $90.6 million this cycle through filed reports1, and $276 million from July to September by his representatives' account2.
Senate RepublicansSenate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with him, received the $158 million gift2.
House RepublicansCongressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with him, received $20 million2.
Backed by Lone Star Liberty PAC, which received $10 million from Musk2. He has drawn more outside spending than any other federal candidate14.
America PAC has spent much of its money opposing him7. Outside groups have spent $130.4 million against him, the largest amount against any candidate14.
CNBC's count of FEC filings puts Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz and their firm at roughly $91.3 million and Musk at roughly $90.6 million1. Fourteen of the 20 largest donor groups give exclusively or nearly exclusively to Republicans, and Republican-aligned donors account for 86 cents of every dollar from the ten largest1. George Soros is the only Democratic-aligned donor in that top ten1; Forbes counts at least $103 million from him, his son Alex and groups associated with them7.
The same imbalance shows in spending by outside groups. Conservative groups had spent more than $1.1 billion by 5 October against nearly $727 million by liberal ones8. Total outside spending in federal races tops $2.4 billion14. Set against those totals, the reported July to September gifts are large, but they are one part of a wider flow of money on both sides.
Candidates' own money runs the other way. Across seven key Senate races, Democratic campaigns entered July with $74.7 million in cash against $36.8 million for Republicans, per CNBC's analysis of FEC filings1. Large outside gifts are one reason Republican-aligned groups can close that gap.
Federal agencies, including NASA, the Pentagon and the National Reconnaissance Office, paid about 20% of revenue last year. The company's prospectus lists the Federal Aviation Administration and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) as risk factors9. It also warns that a worse relationship with the administration could hurt its US government business18. The FCC approved its $17 billion purchase of EchoStar spectrum on 12 May19,20.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) upgraded its Full Self-Driving probe to an engineering analysis covering 3.2 million vehicles in March, the step before a recall request10. It opened an audit of the Cybercab's safety certification on 4 September21.
X was fined €120 million under the EU Digital Services Act in December 2025 and has six months from July to carry out an agreed compliance plan22,12. Musk agreed in May to settle the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) Twitter disclosure case, with his trust paying $1.5 million11.
The Democratic candidate for Texas attorney general has said he would investigate state broadband grants to SpaceX's Starlink, which he says total $110 million, if elected23.
Quarterly, $ million
Source: Tesla, Inc., July 22, 202624
Credits sold to other carmakers. Legislation passed in 2025 was set to remove fines for missing federal fuel economy standards, which underpin much of the demand for the credits25.
Tesla's case shows that policy can move against Musk's companies under an administration in which he served. Regulatory credit revenue fell to $146 million in the second quarter of 2026 from $439 million a year earlier26. Analysts expected that decline once legislation passed under President Trump moved to remove the fines behind much of the demand25. The same administration's safety regulator escalated the Full Self-Driving investigation10.
Federal law bars government contractors from making political contributions. The FEC applies the ban to partnerships and limited liability companies (LLCs) with federal contracts, to individuals under contract and to sole proprietors27. Corporations are already barred from contributing, and employees of contractors may give from personal funds27. SpaceX is a corporation and Musk gives as an individual, so the ban as the FEC describes it does not appear to reach his gifts. Daniel Weiner of the Brennan Center, quoted by Forbes, called the ban "laughably easy to evade" and noted that Democrats also benefit from the rules7.
What changes with control of Congress is oversight. Democrats are preparing to use subpoenas against companies seen as having profited from dealings with the administration if they win the House13. Robert Kelner of Covington & Burling told Bloomberg, as reported, that "there is going to be a broad wave of congressional investigations directed against corporate America"13. House Democrats have already called for investigations into Musk's government contracts and his work at the Department of Government Efficiency2.
The case at its strongest. First, money has not always bought Musk results. In the April 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race he spent at least $3 million himself and groups he funds spent nearly $19 million more, according to the Brennan Center16. His candidate lost, 44.9% to 55.0%17, while Tesla had a lawsuit against the state over selling cars directly to consumers28. Second, late money may count for less: a Texas Tech political scientist asked of the Texas race, "is all this spending coming too late?"8. Third, regulators have acted against his companies under this administration, as the Full Self-Driving and Cybercab cases show21,10. On this reading the gifts are party-building by a committed donor, not a purchase of policy. America PAC's spokesman, Andrew Romeo, framed them in those terms to the Times29.
Our reply. The Wisconsin result and the late-money point are evidence that the spending may not change outcomes, not that it carries no exposure. The exposure comes from the size of one owner's gifts relative to one party's main Senate vehicle, at a time when his main company earns about a fifth of its revenue from federal agencies6,9. If the spending fails and control of a chamber changes, the same gifts become the context for oversight of those contracts13. If it succeeds, the companies still face the EU and their own safety regulator12,10. Both outcomes keep the risk with the companies, so the reading changes the size of the risk, not its direction.
robust investments have allowed the G.O.P. apparatus to get its message out so Republicans can have a fighting chance to defy history
Time29
Position. The reported July to September figures are probably accurate: they are itemised by recipient, they were confirmed on the record by America PAC2,4, and the recipients must file within days5. The verified figure today is about $90.6 million1, and much of that paid for earlier campaigns2. Investors should read the headline total as a declaration by the donor, not yet a disclosure.
Confidence: medium. High that the gifts were made, given the on-record confirmation. Medium on the policy consequences, which depend on election results and on how a new majority uses its powers. Low on the full scale of giving, because gifts to groups that do not disclose donors are not counted in any figure here2.
| Reader | What to do |
|---|---|
| Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) firms | Treat SpaceX's federal revenue share as the main political risk in any position in SpaceX or its suppliers. Map which contracts and licences sit with agencies that report to congressional committees likely to change hands. |
| Family offices | Separate election risk from regulatory risk in Tesla holdings: the Full Self-Driving investigation and the fall in credit revenue are under way regardless of the vote10,26. |
| Corporates | Counterparties of SpaceX on spectrum, launch or broadband grants should expect document requests if oversight widens, including in Texas23. |
| Law firms | Advise clients that donor links to the administration are a stated focus of planned House investigations13, and review compliance with the federal contractor contribution ban for partnership and limited liability company (LLC) clients27. |
Confidence on mechanism: high. The gifts were itemised and confirmed on the record2,4, and the reports are legally due5. Confidence on horizon: high for the October reports, which fall due today, and medium for later gifts, which depend on decisions not yet made.
Analyst assessment. Each call is scored once its date passes.
Senate Leadership Fund's October quarterly report to the FEC itemises contributions from Elon Musk totalling at least $158 million for July to September 2026.
America PAC's October quarterly report to the FEC shows at least $76 million in receipts from Elon Musk for July to September 2026, counting in-kind contributions.
FEC pre-general or post-general reports show at least one new contribution from Elon Musk to a federal committee dated after 30 September 2026.
The three calls are separate events and do not sum to one.