What the political risk industry predicted, checked when the date comes.

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Four rules decide what is recorded and how it is checked.

1. 01

   Said in public, with a number

   A chance that something happens, or a figure for a date ahead. The source said it itself, in a post or report we can link to. A figure a source only reports from someone else does not count.

2. 02

   Written as one testable sentence

   Each prediction is written as a sentence that is either true or false on its date, in the forecaster's own terms. The passage it comes from must appear word for word in what the source published.

3. 03

   Checked after its date

   A week after the date, two separate checks read published sources. A prediction is settled only when both reach the same answer and each points to a source. Otherwise it waits and is checked again.

4. 04

   Set aside when it can never be checked

   A prediction that holds only inside an imagined scenario, or that settles more than ten years out, is kept on file but not shown.

The record has four limits.

• We read only the sources on our list: firms that advise on political and policy risk, insurers and brokers, forecasting platforms, research institutes and writers. Many forecasts are made in private reports we cannot see.
• A prediction of a 5% chance that does not come true is not wrong, and one that does is not proof of a bad forecaster. A fair score needs many settled predictions from the same source.
• Forecasting platforms publish dated numbers far more often than advisory firms do, so they appear here far more often.
• Most predictions on the record were made in the last few weeks and have not reached their dates. The ones settled so far are older forecasts that the sources still publish.