What we know about the reported US and Israeli plan to strike Iran after the midterms

The war so far

The United States and Israel launched a war on Iran in late February. The last reported US strikes on Iran came in early September. Since then, talks to end the war have gone nowhere, and the US keeps a blockade on Iranian oil exports.

On October 21st, The New York Times reported that the two countries have drawn up specific plans for a short, intensive operation in Iran. The plans are for after the US midterm elections on November 3rd. The two leaders at the center of the story are pictured below.

Donald Trump

US President

Told Newsmax on October 15th that he was considering a strike on Pickaxe Mountain, a nuclear site.

Benjamin Netanyahu

Israeli Prime Minister

Faces an Israeli election on October 27th.

What the report says

The Times, citing US officials who spoke without giving their names, says likely targets are Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and its missile and drone stocks. Some officials said refineries would be spared so that gasoline prices do not rise further.

Some US planners are convinced that a three-day campaign could do enough economic damage to change Iran's position, according to the report. One official said the goal would be to force diplomatic concessions.

The Times gives reasons for waiting. The full American force, including three aircraft carriers, will not be in place until early November. Longer nights over Iran also begin then, and the US military prefers to attack in darkness.

How thin the basis is

Nothing has been approved, the Times says. It also reports that Trump has vetoed several plans for a return to major combat this year, most recently this month.

A White House official told the paper the administration does not comment on military plans "that may or may not exist."

The report relies on unnamed sources. Other outlets, such as Haaretz and The Times of Israel, summarize the Times and add no independent confirmation of the plans.

Trump himself has given mixed signals. In early October he said the US would not attack Iran before the midterms. On October 21st he said the US is not negotiating with Iran and that something will happen soon. A small chance exists that he orders a campaign this month, officials told the Times.

Dates that matter

Israel votes on October 27th. The Times notes that if Netanyahu loses, he would be a caretaker prime minister and would find it hard to launch a war.

The US midterm elections follow on November 3rd. Polls show that high energy prices caused by the war are hurting Trump's Republican Party, DW reports.

What Iran has said it would target

Iranian officials say they are preparing for renewed attacks and not for a deal, according to Reuters, as cited by DW. They also say their response would go beyond the targets of recent months, which were merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz and energy sites in neighboring countries.

Mohsen Rezaei, the head of Iran's security council, told Press TV that Iran could target US-linked data centers and AI facilities in the Gulf, as well as undersea communications cables. Iran has also told regional governments that US bases and critical infrastructure could become targets if they help another US or Israeli operation.