Article 30 · Energy
Europe's gas storage is lower than at any point on record for the date, and the price is climbing
Dutch TTF is Europe's benchmark gas price. It sets the cost of heating and power, and winter begins with the least stored gas on record.
What TTF is and why it matters
The Dutch TTF contract is Europe's benchmark gas price, according to the Wall Street Journal. It is a futures contract traded on ICE Endex, the exchange that lists it. European utilities and factories buy gas at prices tied to it.
Voltstack, a firm that tracks European energy data, says a cold snap or a shift of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia can spike TTF and, through it, power prices. LNG is gas cooled to a liquid so ships can carry it.
On October 13th, 2026, the front-month November contract rose 1.8% to 85.85 euros per megawatt hour, its highest since December 2022, the Wall Street Journal reported. That is still far below the 300 euros reached in 2022. It is more than three times the price at the start of 2026.
Storage is at a record low for the date
Gas storage is the buffer Europe draws on in winter. As of October 25th, 2026, EU storage was 74.9% full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data compiled by Voltstack (Figure 1). A year earlier it was 82.8%. The five-year average for the date is 89.6% (Figure 2).
Trading Economics reports that storage stood at 74.62% on October 22nd, the lowest seasonal level since records began in 2009.
The EU softened its filling rule in 2026. TFTC, a news site, reports the mandatory target fell from 90% to 80% for this winter. Voltstack puts storage 15 points under the old 90% mark.
EU gas storage by country, October 25th, 2026
Share of storage capacity full
EU gas storage on October 25th
Share full, now against a year earlier and the five-year average
Why Hormuz matters
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea lane out of the Persian Gulf. It had carried almost 20% of global LNG supply before it was effectively closed after war broke out in the Middle East at the end of February 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.
Between March and June 2026, LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates fell by 35 billion cubic meters compared with a year earlier, the IEA reports.
Some cargoes now move. S&P Global Energy counted 19 LNG cargoes through the strait in September, 13 from Qatar and six from the United Arab Emirates. That compares with 15 in June.
Risk has not gone away. Lloyd's List Intelligence recorded at least 13 attacks on tankers or gas carriers between September 28th and October 12th, 2026, a seven-month high. FXNX, a trading blog, reports that QatarEnergy extended its force majeure notices to European buyers through December 2026. Force majeure means a seller has formally said it cannot deliver contracted cargoes.
What could keep prices down
Not every forecaster expects a spike. Citi analyst Maggie Xueting Lin keeps a fourth-quarter TTF base case of 56 euros per megawatt hour, TFTC reports. She cites weaker industrial demand and faster-than-expected storage filling.
Shipping costs have also fallen. Atlantic LNG carrier rates dropped 91% from their March peak to $25,750 a day by October 6th, 2026, ShipUniverse reports. Europe took 54% of US LNG exports in September.
The European gas network operator group ENTSOG estimates Europe might need to cut gas demand by as much as 15% in a cold winter, the Wall Street Journal reports.
What to watch
A trader analysis published on September 30th, 2026 set a bull case of 92 euros, with a cold January and a fresh LNG break. Its bear case was 46 euros, with a mild winter.
Voltstack says supply security should hold this winter if LNG keeps flowing and the weather is mild, but at a price. Its swing factor is how high storage lands in November.
Two things to follow: weekly storage readings from Gas Infrastructure Europe, and the count of LNG cargoes leaving Hormuz, including whether Qatar's force majeure ends.